Emerging Market View: What Our Analysts Are Reading

EM View

Among the many headlines and articles circulating global news, we are reminded of volatility’s inherent presence in emerging markets. Antonio Martinez (@antoniojosemc), Senior Analyst for Latin America has been keeping a close eye on developments in Venezuela, one of Latin America’s lowest performing economies in recent years. Good news is hard to derive from Bloomberg’s article on Venezuela’s Bolivar taking a hit on the black market. Antonio comments that the, “SICAD2 will not resolve the distortions in the exchange rate market unless there is sufficient volume of dollars on offer. Continued delays in resolving the foreign exchange rate system will only make the eventual necessary adjustment more economically and politically painful.” Combating the dismal news for Venezuela, Antonio recently authored FSG’s Central America Regional Overview, as well as a blog post which outline opportunities in Central America.

The EMEA portfolio is certainly no exception to volatility either. Following German businesses’ growing concerns over Russian ties, Martina Bozadzhieva, Head of EMEA Research advises that, “MNCs need to prepare for further downside risks to Russia’s performance. Regional teams should work to assess the real impact of sanctions on their business and manage corporate’s perceptions about risk to avoid a costly pullout of resources from the market that could undermine their competitive standing.”

And finally from the APAC perspective, The Hindu reports the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to hold rates. According to FSG’s Shishir Sinha, “the Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to cut rates in its forthcoming monetary policy on April 1 even though economic conditions seem to have eased recently with some moderation in inflation and financial market stability, thanks to the election euphoria.”

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