The Scenario: Oil prices declined by 39.0% during the past five months, driven by the strong dollar, OPEC-member politics, fracking technology, and low interest rates. Media and corporate attention has been focused on struggling oil exporters like Russia, Venezuela, and…
25 European banks fail stress tests
Banking stress tests in Europe have a rocky history. While the tests conducted by the United States Federal Reserve in 2009 restored confidence in the financial sector, European tests have been undermined almost immediately by bank failures. Stress tests in…
What to expect from European bank stress tests
On Sunday, October 26, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release the long-awaited results of its bank stress tests. Mirroring the action taken by the United States Federal Reserve in 2009, these examinations are meant to determine once and for…
Déjà vu once again: Eurozone growth is missing the mark
The Western European business environment is beginning to feel like another case of déjà vu: bond yields are rising, putting pressure on sovereign borrowing costs; budget deficits are missing targets, endangering market stability; and growth is lower than expected, meaning…
Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote Changes the UK’s Status Quo
On the night of September 18, Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom. The “no” camp had maintained a safe distance ahead for most of the 18-month campaign period, but the past few weeks have seen a strong…
Even Good Monetary Policy Cannot Solve Europe’s Problems
Mario Draghi, ECB President (Image: Mario Vedder/AP) After the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates into negative territory in June, we asserted that central banks act when expectations miss to the downside. Once again, today was the rule and not…
If China Slows: Prepare for Disruption in EMEA Business
The dragon’s breath is losing steam – increasing wages, mounting social tensions and unprecedented political transformation are all putting strains on the Chinese economy. GDP growth figures for 2014 have fallen from 7.5% to 7.3%, with downside scenario forecasts for…