Sept. 27’s regional elections in Catalonia showed that its citizens remain divided on whether to remain a part of Spain or break free. While pro-independence groups received a majority of votes, high voter participation signaled that anti-independence citizens felt compelled to make their voice heard. The country’s central government insists that a Catalan secession would impact all of Spain, thus requiring a national referendum.

Regardless of its view, Madrid must now rise to the challenge of accommodating a region that hosts 15 percent of its population.

FSG considers it highly unlikely that Catalonia will become an independent state. To begin, the movement fails to gain a majority within its own region, making it highly unlikely to be supported by the country as a whole. In addition, squabbles over leadership could delay the region’s 18-month plan toward independence, including setting up tax laws and new embassies. In addition, the central government views secession as constitutionally impossible — as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said, “I am ready to listen and to talk, but not in any way to liquidate the law. I am not going to talk about either the unity of Spain, or sovereignty.”

Despite these challenges, Catalan nationalists are disrupting national politics. The central government’s strong stance against independence has brought the region’s separatist movement into the mainstream. December’s national elections will be a four-party competition, with protest parties Ciudadanos and Podemos challenging traditional center parties Partido Popular (PP) and Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), for the first time since Spain’s transition to democracy. Even if Catalonia is unlikely to emerge as an independent state, its demands have disrupted Spanish politics. Political victory, not to mention stability, will require convincing ideas for reform so that all of its citizens can participate.

Despite the low likelihood of secession, sustained political disruption weighs on business planning processes and much is at stake. After years of a particularly brutal recession, Spain’s economy is growing among the fastest in Europe. Substantial internal devaluation and export orientation are improving the country’s ability to take advantage of a depreciated euro. The country cannot afford uncertain economic policies or the increased likelihood of political disruption. Leading up to general elections on Dec. 20, Spain’s government should improve dialogue with Catalonia in order to allow the country to focus on policies that will improve living conditions, employment and the economic strength of all of Spain.

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