“Never satisfied.” Such is the name of the speedboat docked by the hotel terrace overlooking Lagos Lagoon; the same boat that floated on these waters in 2014 and whose presence underscores the Lagos spirit – one animated by hustle, aspiration, and the never-ending quest to make it big. Although the boat’s name reflects these core tenets of Lagosian life, I’ve come to look at it differently through my conversations with general managers and distributors. Indeed, the situation today – marked by acute forex shortages, pricing pressures, and unclear government direction – is anything but satisfactory.

Nigeria’s economy is diversified, with the oil and gas sector only accounting for 10.8 percent of GDP, yet it suffers from serious macroeconomic imbalances due to over-reliance on oil exports for earning foreign exchange. With the price of Brent sinking to new lows this year, the forex shortages that caused business leaders so much frustration in 2015 have taken on a new dimension. As the head of distribution for one of the country’s most sophisticated networks told us today, “It’s not about who wins in this situation but who loses less.”

Small players have been forced to shut down their businesses, unable to access US dollars to pay for vital, imported inputs to their supply chain. For the first time since the oil price decline, suppliers of packaging materials have been unable to deliver their products this week. Multinationals are relying on their relationships with banks to access US dollars but it is only a matter of time before the obstacles to an efficient route to market (e.g. receiving supplies in a timely manner) or maintaining market share (e.g. resisting the pressure to increase prices) proliferate.

Lack of clarity is a common chorus among those I meet, particularly around government leadership. “The only thing that is clear is that the government doesn’t know what is going on with the economy. They hoped this period would pass, but now they realize it is here to stay, they don’t know what to do.” There is a certain fatalism that taints the fatigue with which those words are uttered, as unorthodox policies have been a hallmark of the past year. With no clear fiscal agenda promulgated by the government, no one knows whether it will be forced to liberalize its import policies or decide that more protectionism is the solution (hint: none of the business leaders I have met prefer the latter). The silver lining is in the long-term: with the easy money of oil now over, the government will be forced to invest in sectors that long suffered from neglect, such as agriculture, and to increase revenue collection. Low oil prices might just be the right incentive for the country’s political leadership to focus on other sectors of the economy, but this will take time to bear fruit.

Make no mistake: forex shortages are not the defining feature of doing business in Nigeria. They are a crucial issue at present, but “opportunity” remains the name of the game. General managers and distributors alike are performing strategic investments, such as opening new factories, setting up local entities, and accessing new financing for their partners… all despite the lull. Successful FMCG firms are investing in R&D, understanding that innovation is necessary to succeed in this environment, while telecoms companies are focusing on end-customer experience and training their distributors to provide value-added services to remain ahead of the competition.

Building a sophisticated route to market is cited by each individual as a strategic priority for this year, leading them to invest in capability building and securing alternative funds for their distributors. Each of these initiatives will take time to produce its effects, but they are being spearheaded today by those firms who understand that to succeed in Nigeria, patience and a long-term mentality are essential.

Meanwhile, Lagos is Lagos, in all its dynamic, urban vastness. Construction sites whiz past my car window, as countless office buildings are being constructed, hotels renovated, and residential real estate developed. Dotting the street is constant activity – the Lagos hustle, if you will, where it seems that every individual in this 21 million-strong city is engaged in making money, whether in the form of trade, transport, or trimming vegetation by the sidewalk. Culturally, Lagos continues to assert its place as a hub for the continent as art galleries, incredible architecture, and chilled rooftop bars abound and remain patronized despite these economic times.

Lagos will pulse on – and so will Nigeria.

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