Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.
Joel Whitaker on “IMF Signals Another Downgrade to Global Growth”
“The IMF is signaling a downgrade in global growth expectations. FSG’s monthly forecast revisions have already reduced our outlook from 2.9% in 2016 to 2.6% since May, which is why we recommend clients to aggressively rethink their market portfolio balance in planning for 2017.”
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Alec Lee on “Temer enviará reforma da Previdência ao Congresso até o fim de setembro”
“The move is a risky one by Temer, but he needs to show that he will not bend against the first political pressure that confronts his proposed reform package. Still, do not expect the measure to receive attention from Congress until after municipal elections in October, meaning negotiations will all but surely spill over into the first half of 2017.”
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Cheng Siew Chua on “Vietnam gov’t to sell $7bn worth of stakes in 12 big firms”
“Despite the Prime Minister’s plan for SOE reforms, large-scale privatizations are not expected to happen soon in Vietnam as we foresee long approval processes from various ministries, and resistance within SOEs to give up their monopoly powers. Vietnam will have to cope with the shortfall in government revenue amid subdued commodity prices, and expect a modest state budget for next year.”
Link to article | Read More of Cheng Siew’s Commentary | Have a Question for Cheng Siew?
Mark McNamee on “In Britain, Soul-Searching on ‘Brexit’”
“As the UK is unlikely to invoke Article 50 to leave the EU until mid-2017 at the earliest, PM May recognizes the need to formulate plans for future trade and other matters to calm markets in this period of uncertainty. Firms should accept Brexit as a fact and monitor negotiations indicating a direction of policy and regulatory changes over the coming year.”
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