Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.
Antonio Martinez on “Mexico Oil Auction Succeeds in Drawing World’s Biggest Drillers”
“Mexico’s successful deep-water oil auction offers much-needed good news for the country, though the most significant benefits likely remain years away.”
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Dalia Naguib on “Libya’s ‘Elephant’ Oil Field Reopens as Biggest Port Set to Ship”
“The Libyan National Army has taken a stronger role in reviving oil production since September, effectively doubling output to 600,000 bpd. With the prospects of increasing production to 900,000 bpd by the end of the year looking very likely and Libya’s aim to reach 1.2 million bpd in 2017, this additional output could undermine the recent OPEC deal and limit any increase in global oil prices.”
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Cheng Siew Chua on “World Bank upgrades Philippine growth outlook”
“The World Bank has upgraded its outlook for the Philippine economy largely due to its strong performance in the third quarter. As the Duterte administration continues to ramp up infrastructure investment to deliver on its economic agenda, companies in the industrial sector should evaluate the impact of increased infrastructure spending on the demand for their products.”
Link to article | Read More of Cheng Siew’s Commentary | Have a Question for Cheng Siew?
Mark McNamee on “EU agrees to extend Russia sanctions until mid-2017 in a signal to Trump”
“The extension of EU sanctions in H2 2017 will become much more questionable and will depend in part on both the Kremlin’s international behavior as well as Trump’s decision in March 2017 over whether to extend US sanctions. As Russia has little to offer the US in terms of a quid pro quo, FSG’s expectation is that US sanctions will remain in place next year.”
Link to article | Read More of Mark’s Commentary | Have a Question for Mark?
Natalia Duarte on “Ecuador finance minister Herrera quitting for health reasons: Correa”
“The resignation of Ecuador’s Finance Minister just two months before February’s elections points to potential last-minute actions by Correa to garner support for his PAIS Alliance party and its presidential candidate, Lenin Moreno. On Nov 29, Correa asked all of his ministers to step down, and this reshuffling could indicate upcoming measures to artificially boost the economy in the short-term.”
Link to article | Read More of Natalia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Natalia?
Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Italy’s Banking Crisis Is Nearly Upon Us”
“Unicredit already announced considerable job cuts and asset sales ahead of its capital increase to improve profitability, and support other banks. Most likely, Italian banks’ recapitalization will succeed along with a few mergers and acquisitions, MNCs should be prepared for a downside scenario of weak banks failing, which then require ECB intervention and individual investors bearing losses.'”
Link to article | Read More of Athanasia’s Commentary | Have a Question for Athanasia?
William Attwell on “Kenya central bank staff implicated in alleged $350m fraud”
“The documents allege that CBK officials received payments and gifts in return for ignoring instances of large-scale fraud at Imperial Bank, which having collapsed, is now under CBK receivership. Despite the new CBK governor’s tough anti-corruption stance, the case reveals major governance shortcomings in Kenya’s banking system, with negative implications for the stability of the financial sector.”