Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.

Mark McNamee on “Senators Propose Stronger U.S. Sanctions Against Russia”

“Further sanctions, particularly if focused on the vital mining and metals industries, would have a further negative impact on the Russian economy and cause some further depreciation of the ruble - likely by up to 5%. The ruble is likely to depreciate increasingly in H2 as well due to US interest rate hikes, compounding pressure on the ruble should sanctions be implemented.”

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Cailey Stevens on “Debt-Ceiling Fights Make Government Borrowing Even More Expensive Than We Thought”

“MNCs should expect rising Treasury yields this fall as a debt limit showdown looms. Secretary Mnuchin has asked Congress to increase the debt limit before their August recess although the ceiling isn’t expected to be breached before October. Congress must pass a budget by Sept. 30 to avoid a government shutdown. Expect debt limit and budget battles to delay decisions on taxes and infrastructure.”

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Dalia Naguib on “Licences d’importation: élargissement des contingents aux électroménagers, téléphones mobiles et produits cosmétiques”

“Algeria’s decision to expand import quotas to household appliances, mobile phones, and cosmetics, shows that all sectors are vulnerable to import restrictions, not just industrial products and pharmaceuticals, which were formerly the primary targets. MNCs must ensure their partners are equipped with the capabilities to react to sudden restrictions and understand the import licensing process.”

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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Why the pollsters can’t agree on UK election”

“MNCs should expect re-election of the Conservatives on June 8, and prime minister Theresa May to go forward with Brexit negotiations as planned from mid-June. Polls show that Labour party popularity has strengthened recently. However, polls have historically overestimated Labour party support, as younger and lower income voters, the typical Labour voters, are more likely to abstain from the vote.”

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Antonio Martinez on “Keystone state: A Mexican vote with big consequences”

“The outcome of the gubernatorial election in the state of Mexico will have major ramifications for the 2018 general elections, where leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is currently the favorite to be the next president of Mexico. Multinationals should closely track the results this upcoming Sunday.”

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Alec Lee on Brazil’s Temer says coalition steady despite bribery allegations”

Despite statements to the contrary, the Temer government remains at high risk of falling. Current political parties currently showing support will abandon ship should new facts come out, or if the Temer government moves to interfere with the electoral court which is set to rule on whether to cancel the president’s mandate next week. “

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