Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.
Danyi Yang on “U.S. business group urges trade fixes ahead of China’s party congress”
“The Chinese Communist Party will meet this fall for the National Congress, which will mark the country’s top leadership transition every five years. As the Chinese leaders are expected to focus more on economic stability, and avoid any potential trade frictions with the US ahead of the meeting, there is likely more leverage for the US government and businesses in trade negotiations with China.”
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William Attwell on “South Africa Has Second Recession in Eight Years”
“The data underlines the weak state of the economy (particularly the manufacturing and consumer-facing industries), which on a quarterly basis has vacillated between growth and contractions since early 2015. However, the quarterly figure obscures the fact that GDP actually grew by 1% on a YOY basis in Q1, signaling that, while lackluster, the economy is not in a downward spiral.”
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Zeynep Kosereisoglu on “Qatar: UAE and Saudi Arabia step up pressure in diplomatic crisis”
“As countries show no signs of backing down, it is important for MNCs to prepare for key risks in relation to the Qatar crisis: increased pressures on the Qatari riyal’s peg, significant disruptions to the Qatar business via cost increases and supply chain issues, and reputational risk for the business in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain or UAE if the firm also has large operations in Qatar.”
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Athanasia Kokkinogeni on “Election results: Theresa May ‘no intention of resigning’ after losses”
“MNCs should expect more uncertainty after the Conservative party weakening in elections failing to get a strong mandate for Brexit negotiations. The Conservatives won the elections as expected, but secured 8 seats below majority. PM May has no intention to resign, and she will seek to form a coalition government with the Democratic Unionist party, which supports a softer Brexit approach.”
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Antonio Martinez on “Peso rallies as results point to poll win for Mexico’s ruling PRI”
“The apparent victory of the ruling party’s candidate, Alfredo del Mazo, over the leftist candidate Delfina Gomez in the much-watched gubernatorial elections in the State of Mexico provides a clear indication that a populist wave remains unlikely in next year’s general elections. While leftist Lopez Obrador remains the favorite to be the next president of Mexico, the election will be close.”
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