Each week Frontier Strategy Group’s global team shares their view on key media stories, and what the implications are for businesses that operate in emerging markets. For more information about how to contact our analysts, send us an email.
Martina Bozadzhieva on “Turkey doubles tariffs on some U.S. imports over economy ‘attacks’“
“MNCs should continue to monitor for further escalation in tensions between Turkey and the US. While Turkey’s tariffs are a proportionate response to the US increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum, the continued trade spat bodes poorly for the two countries’ ability to normalize relations and, as a result, for the lira’s ability to stabilize in the coming weeks.“
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Anna Rosenberg on “African economy: the limits of ‘leapfrogging’“
“This article provides a useful summary for how digital advances have enabled African countries transform banking, telephony, farming and -to some extend- the healthcare sectors. However, it also warns that technology can not solve all challenges the continent still faces, including the need for better infrastructure, good governance, healthcare and education.”
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Josef Jelinek on “The Chinese street’s view of the trade war: some say they won’t buy U.S. products“
“As the US trade war with China escalates, the expectation has been for Beijing to revert to its old playbook of riling up consumer nationalist sentiment against American brands. However, given the current state of the Chinese economy, Beijing has wanted to avoid triggering a market panic, hence has been relatively subdued. One cannot expect the response on the street to be as constrained.”
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Mark McNamee on “IMF mission to visit Kyiv on Sept 6-19“
“In this major announcement of the upcoming visit, the IMF signalled the likely vital disbursement of another tranche of IMF funding, which then unlocks World Bank and EU funding, by October. Boosting forex reserves and filling rising budget gaps had become absolutely critical for market stability amid the need to pay pensions and civil servants as well as make increasing external debt payments.“
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Ryan Connelly on “U.S. Takes Trade Fight to Smaller Nations”
“The Trump Administration has been targeting its actions on countries that run a large surplus in goods with the US. The steps outlined in this article are entirely consistent with the Administration’s approach to trade revision so far - to use any available means to adjust trade barriers to favor US producers, without going to Congress.“
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Pratima Singh on “Modicare to be launched on 25 September“
“Ayushman Bharat, Prime Minister Modi’s ambitious health protection policy, will be launched on 25 September. Although several states have signed MoUs with the central government, details of coverage and costs are yet to be disclosed. Given the increased autonomy of state governments in determining healthcare policy, we can expect to see a few variations in financing models across different states.”
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Martin Belchev on “CEE to escape worst of Turkish lira fallout“
“The recent US sanctions on Turkey and the subsequent collapse of the lira has caused panic on emerging market, negatively affecting the strength of their currencies. Despite concern regarding further economic exposure, CEE markets are largely well-insulated against the lira fallout and MNCs should expect that economic growth and business opportunities will remain relatively unaffected.”
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