As Western Europe continues to struggle with the sovereign debt crisis and currency depreciation, declining exports, and lower 2012 growth prospects engulf Central and Eastern Europe, the outlook for Russia seems surprisingly solid. Despite a slow downward revision of 2012 growth forecasts from earlier this year, Russia is still projected to grow at about 4% in 2012.
However, the 2008-2009 crisis made it painfully clear that Russia is not and cannot be an island of stability when European and potentially global markets are in turmoil. Since 2009, Russia has grown even more dependent on energy exports, with its 2012 budget balancing at oil price of over $110 per barrel.
In the short term Russia is growing on the back of strong consumer demand, but this in no way eliminates the significant downside risk of an oil price decline. With the Eurozone already heading into a mild recession and the possibility of global financial market contagion, a significant decline in oil prices is a real possibility. A drop in oil prices could unleash a chain reaction (see graph) that would undermine Russia’s economy and, at best, depress Russia’s GDP growth.
For MNCs, this means having contingency plans for a significant downturn in Russia over the next 6-8 months to address ruble depreciation and declining demand on the domestic market.
On the positive side, MNCs should also be prepared to take advantage of M&A opportunities as attractive local assets will be priced at a discount.
In the long term, the Russian market continues to hold significant opportunity for foreign companies, especially after the country joins the WTO later this year. However, MNCs need to account for the significant risk the Eurozone crisis is posing to Russia’s performance in 2012 and be prepared to respond to rapid changes in the market.
