Trend
- Turkey’s economy is growing at a slower pace than it did in H1 2011, a trend that will become more pronounced through 2012
Drivers
- Demand for Turkish exports is slowing as the sovereign debt crisis drives recession in the eurozone, Turkey’s most important trade partner
- The Central Bank of Turkey is tightening credit conditions to stem the depreciation of the Turkish lira. This will slow both consumer and retail credit growth in 2012 and will contribute to slower GDP growth for the year
FSG View
- B2B demand from Turkish customers is decelerating, but the pace of the slowdown will depend on customers’ target markets:
- Turkish companies exporting to EU markets are most exposed in 2012 because of the slowdown of demand from European markets
- Turkish companies exporting to fast-growing Middle Eastern and African markets, as well as domestic FMCG companies, will be the least affected by the slowdown because demand from these markets is less dependent on EU demand
- MNCs should monitor growth projections for the euro zone and Turkish Central Bank actions as leading indicators of the slowdown in Turkish economic growth for 2012
- Even though its growth is slowing, Turkey will remain one of the most attractive markets in CEE
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